Just 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
As per Opta, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
