A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
